Tag: Syria

‘All eyes on Moscow’ – Russian-Turkish suspense is palpable

On By AdminIn TurkeyLeave a comment

DebkaFile Reports:

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan clearly took a calculated risk when he ordered a two hour cross-border artillery bombardment Saturday, Feb. 13 of Syrian army forces positioned around the northern Syrian town of Azaz and the Kurdish YPG militia units which two days earlier took control of the former Syrian military air base of Minagh some six kilometers from the Turkish border.

Kurdish troops backed by the Russian air force seized that base last week from rebel militias as part of the operation for cutting the rebel groups under siege in Aleppo from their supply routes. The Turkish bombardment was therefore an indirect attack on the Russian forces backing pro-Assad forces against the rebels in the Syria war.

Erdogan knows that Moscow hasn’t finished settling accounts with Turkey for the shooting down of a Russian Su-24 on Nov. 24 and is spoiling for more punishment. After that incident, the Russians deployed top-of-line S-400 ground-to-air missile batteries and advanced Sukhoi Su-35 warplanes to their base in Latakia near the Turkish border. Ankara therefore limited its strike to a two-hour artillery bombardment from Turkish soil, reasoning that a Turkish warplane anywhere near the Syrian border would be shot down instantly.

Emboldened by the delay in the Russian response, the Turks took another step: Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu threatened the Kurdish YPG militia with more attacks if they failed to withdraw from the Menagh air base.

Although the Turkish prime minister had called on “allies and supporters” to back the operation against the Russian-backed  Syrian Kurds, Washington took the opposite line by urging Turkey, a fellow member of NATO, to desist from any further attacks.

Washington’s concern is obvious. An outright clash between Turkey and Russia would entitle Ankara to invoke the NATO charter and demand allied protection for a member state under attack.

The Obama administration would have had to spurn this appeal for three reasons:

  1. To avoid getting mixed up in a military clash between two countries, just as the US kept its powder dry in the Russian-Ukraine confrontation after Moscow’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in February 2014.
  2. To avoid upsetting the secret Obama-Putin deal on the allocation of spheres of influence in Syria: the Americans have taken the regions east of the Euphrates River, and the Russians, the west.
    The Kurdish YPG militia forces near Aleppo and the city itself come under the Russian area of influence.
  3. Regional tensions were tightened another notch Saturday by Russian comments: Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that his country and the West have “slid into a new Cold War period,” and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said a third World War is actually underway -“I call this struggle a third World War by other means.,” he said.

Washington will avoid any action that risks further stoking this high state of international tension, but will act instead to de-escalate the cross-border Turkish-Russian confrontation over Syria.

All eyes are now on Moscow, much depends on Russia’s response to the artillery bombardment of its Syrian and Kurdish allies. It is up to Putin to decide when and how to strike back – if at all.

US urges Turkey to stop bombing Syria

On By AdminIn SOT, TurkeyLeave a comment

Russian state media is reporting that Turkey is shelling Syrian and Kurdish positions inside Syria.

Last week, the Russian Prime Minister warned that if Turkey did that, they would set off a ‘World War’.

Video: Turkey attacks Syrian Kurds while Erdogan Slams America

Tweets from the State Department

 

Russian Prime Minister warns of “A New World War” – this time in the Middle East

On By AdminIn Middle EastLeave a comment

As Turkey and Saudi Arabia edge closer to sending ground forces into Syria at the behest of the United States, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has warned that an escalation of the conflict could lead to ‘World War’.

During an interview with German newspaper Handelsblatt, Medvedev warned of dire consequences if the United States and its allies abandon Syrian peace talks in favor of deploying ground forces.

Saudi security forces, whose faces display the word ‘Decisive’ take part in a military parade. Turkey Plans Joint War Games With Saudi Arabia. © AP PHOTO/ MOSA’AB ELSHAMY.
“All ground operations, as a rule, lead to permanent wars,” he said. “Look at what is going on in Afghanistan and a number of other countries. I don’t even mention the ill-fated Libya.

“The Americans must consider — both the US president and our Arab partners — whether or not they want a permanent war.”

All sides should instead focus on implementing peace talks.

“We must make everyone sit down to the negotiating table, and we can do it by using, among other things, the harsh measures that are being implemented by Russia, the Americans, and even, with all reservations, the Turks, rather than start yet another war in the world.”

Flags wave in front of soldiers who take positions with their army vehicles during the NATO Noble Jump exercise on a training range near Swietoszow Zagan, Poland
 Any direct involvement by foreign players on behalf of the Syrian opposition will only worsen the violence.

“We may differ in our opinions of certain political leaders but it is not a good enough reason to begin intervention or to stir up unrest from within.”

Moscow has long-stressed the need to support the legitimate government of President Bashar al-Assad in the fight against terrorism. Working alongside the Syrian Army, Russian airstrikes have had a severe impact on Daesh, also known as IS/Islamic State.

“…We must sit down at the same table, but our partners avoid this,” Medvedev said. “That is, there have been some occasional meetings, telephone conversations and contacts between our militaries. But in this situation we should create a full-scale alliance to fight this evil.”

Migrants, mostly from Syria, headed for EU member Hungary, walk in groups towards Hungary in Kanjiza, North Serbia, near the Hungarian border. © AP PHOTO/ EDVARD MOLNAR.
The Prime Minister also criticized Europe’s handling of the migrant crisis. The continent is facing an increased risk of terrorist attack because of its decision to open its borders, and this only highlights the need for international cooperation against terrorism.

“Some of these people — and it’s not just a few strange individuals or utter scoundrels, but hundreds and possibly thousands — are entering Europe as potential time bombs, and they will fulfill their missions as robots when they are told to,” he said.

“We are not trying to rule the world or impose our regulations on it, though we are accused regularly of having such ambitions” he added. “That is not so — we are a pragmatic people who realise that no one can shoulder responsibility for the whole world, not even the United States of America.”

Article by Sputnik: http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160212/1034614648/medvedev-syrian-permanent-war.html#ixzz3zuSgodpO

Terrorists draw Turkey into conflict with Russia

On By AdminIn Russia, STRATFOR, TurkeyLeave a comment

This article is part of a series authored by STRATFOR – a geopolitical intelligence firm that provides strategic analysis and forecasting. For other articles by STRATFOR click here.

A powerful explosion went off in Istanbul near the city’s most prominent tourist attractions on Jan. 12, killing at least 10 people and injuring six foreign tourists. The blast, which took place in front of the ancient Egyptian Obelisk of Theodosius and near the Blue Mosque in the Sultanahmet district, reportedly involved a suicide bomber. Though the Turkish government is currently in conflict with numerous terrorist and non-state militant groups, the location, target and method of attack point to the Islamic State as the primary suspect behind the operation. In comments made after an hour long meeting of the country’s National Security Council, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the suicide bomber was of Syrian origin.

By cracking down on the Islamic State and actively supporting rebel operations against the extremist group in Syria, Turkey has knowingly made itself a target of the many groups loyal to the Islamic State. Furious at the disruption of their vital supply lines through Turkey because of the crackdown, which has steadily intensified since July 2015, Islamic State leaders have repeatedly vowed to launch severe retaliatory attacks. The first serious attack occurred last year on July 20, when the group staged a suicide bombing attack in the Turkish town of Suruc, near the Syrian border. Turkish raids and arrests stopped several other planned attacks, but not all of them; on Oct. 10, the group struck again in Ankara.

The latest attack, which hit in the heart of Istanbul’s oldest quarter, could galvanize an even stronger Turkish response against the Islamic State. Indeed, Ankara has already been pushing its allies to support it in an operation in Syria’s northern Aleppo province that aims to create a buffer zone in the Azaz-Jarablus zone. A successful operation would serve Turkish interests by hurting the Islamic State, strengthening the rebel position in northern Syria, preventing the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) from expanding farther westward and — because Turkey does not want to go it alone — drawing the United States deeper into the conflict.

However, Russia’s intervention in Syria has greatly complicated Turkey’s plans for the operation, and in the wake of Turkey shooting down a Russian Su-24 warplane, Moscow continues to frustrate Turkish ambitions in the country. The Russians, for instance, have reinforced their air defense assets in Syria, and in a Dec. 17 interview, Russian President Vladimir Putin dared Turkey to fly over Syrian airspace with the implication that the aircraft would be shot down if it did. Faced with the prospect of a potential war with Russia if it proceeded with an armed incursion into Syria, Ankara has been forced to revise its plans for northern Aleppo.

In spite of the risk that Russia poses, Turkey could increase its involvement in Syria. This latest Islamic State attack on a Turkish city comes at a time when the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces have crossed the Euphrates River in their push westward and Russian- and Iranian-backed loyalist offensives have ratcheted up the pressure on Turkey’s Syrian rebel proxies. The Turks may choose to carry out intensified strikes with long-range missiles from the safety of their own borders, but a greater Turkish incursion into Syria cannot be ruled out.

Terrorists Target Turkey, Again is republished with permission of Stratfor.

This is what could cause Russia to invade Israel

On By AdminIn Israel, RussiaLeave a comment

As Russia aims its heavy weapons at Turkey causing the world to watch on in suspense, a scene is playing-out between the two belligerents, one in which the world has little control.

However, what many don’t realise, is that in another part of the world, seeds are being sown for the emergence of an even greater crisis.

It was during the remarkable events of the Six Day war in 1967, that Israel captured the Golan Heights.

After capturing the Golan, the idea was for the Israeli government to use it as bargaining chip for any post-war negotiation, or keep it as a buffer zone to reinforce territorial security against any future Syrian aggression.

golan
Israeli tanks roll into the Golan in 1967

Since then, continued Israeli occupation of the Golan is an arrangement which, in light of recent information, could be a latent catalyst for a Russian invasion.

Its possible that in the very act of seeking security through continued occupation, Israel may have unwittingly guaranteed a future confrontation with Russia.

Unprecedented oil deposits discovered on the Golan

In October, an Israeli energy company – Afek – was drilling around the Golan and discovered unprecedented amounts of oil.

Afek’s Chief Geologist – Dr. Yuval Bartov, said to Israel’s Channel 2 News;

“We are talking about a strata which is 350 meters thick… On average in the world strata are 20-30 meters thick. This is ten times as large as that, so we are talking about significant quantities.”

Just as Israel’s offshore Mediterranean gas discoveries created an entire energy industry, so the Golan oil find could transform Israel into a supplier.

However, while the gas is generally recognised to be within Israeli territory, the oil discovery on the Golan is not.

The disputed sovereignty over the Golan

Since 1967, the international community of nations have only recognised Syrian ownership of the Golan.

Upon publishing news of the Golan discovery, Russian state-owned media was quick to claim that “The region is internationally recognized Syrian territory”.

Until recently, the dispute over Golan sovereignty was largely just a war of words: where the United Nations would pass majority supported resolutions condemning Israel for its occupation, Israel would respond by ignoring any demands to relinquish the territory.

But everything changed in September 2015, when Russia moved into Syria.

Russia suddenly acquired a direct and vested interest in Syrian national and geographic integrity, including, the Golan Heights. From that moment on, an intriguing series of events unfolded.

Israel fails to secure US support

Almost a month after the oil discovery, Netanyahu had a meeting planned with Obama at the White-house.

As part of the meeting, Netanyahu tried to include the question of Golan occupation on the agenda, but it was rejected on the basis that the U.S. position, which objects to Israel annexing the Golan Heights, remains unchanged.

Russia condemns Israel and says the Golan belongs to Syria

A week after Netanyahu’s visit, the question of Golan occupation once again came to the fore when the United Nations voted on a resolution submitted by Syria for Israel to be removed from Golan occupation.

The motion was passed with a strong majority, but most notably, the Russian Federation supported the resolution condemning Israel for its occupation. 

The resolution claimed that Israel’s hold over the Golan Heights, was “a stumbling block in the way of achieving a just, comprehensive​,​ and lasting peace in the region.”

Syria has just asked Russia to develop its oil resources

A week after re-affirming the view of the international community regarding Israels occupation, the Syrian president – Bashar al-Assad – took the opportunity to ask Russia to help develop Syrian oil resources.

At this point, the focus on development is on sea based resources, however this could change if it becomes apparent that the Golan offers low cost extraction for high return.

UPDATE: Israel is “very concerned” about Russian activity near the Golan

It has since come to light that the Israeli government is significantly concerned about Russian military activity near the Golan as the motives of the military are unclear.

While the oil discovery rekindles the international debate on Golan sovereignty, Russia continues to support the convenient view that an Israeli occupation of the Golan is a threat to peace in the Middle East.

How far will Russia go to take a spoil under the guise of achieving “peace” in the Middle East?

And thou shalt think an evil thought…
Art thou come to take a spoil?
hast thou gathered thy company to take a prey?
to carry away silver and gold, to take away cattle and goods,
to take a great spoil”
– Ezek 38

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