Your Weekly Update – Oct 22, 2015

1) Israeli Palestinian conflict intensifies.

Much to Israels displeasure, the United Nations offered to put international troops in Jerusalem to curb the crisis.

“Behold, I will make Jerusalem a cup of trembling unto all the people round about, when they shall be in the siege both against Judah and against Jerusalem. And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people: all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though all the people of the earth be gathered together against it” Zech 12.

2) Persia/Iran strikes one of the biggest military deals with Russia yet.

“It is also instructive that Iran has agreed to purchase $21 billion of aircraft and satellite equipment from Russia, one of the largest military transactions in Russian history and a transaction made possible through the lifting of sanctions.”

” I will bring thee forth, and all thine army, horses and horsemen, all of them clothed with all sorts of armour, even a great company with bucklers and shields, all of them handling swords, Persia, (Iran)… with them; all of them with shield and helmet.” Ezek 38

 3) Strongest El Nino in decades is coming.

The last time there was an El Nino of similar magnitude to the current one, the record-setting event of 1997-1998, floods, fires, droughts and other calamities killed at least 30,000 people and caused $100 billion in damage, Trenberth estimates.

Another powerful El Nino, in 1918-19, sank India into a brutal drought and probably contributed to the global flu pandemic, according to a study by the Climate Program Office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

However this coming El Nino, is tipped to be the biggest on record. The following quote in Luke is referring to the distress of nations, political heavens. What will cause this distress? Very likely that distress could come about through natural disasters.

“And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring” Luke 21:25

4) With Syria in progress, Putin now turns to Afghanistan.

“In a disturbing echo of its Syria intervention, Russia is stepping up its military and security involvement in Afghanistan following Nato’s withdrawal and subsequent, dramatic advances by the Taliban and Islamic State.

Afghanistan (along with Syria) is one of the parts of the Seleucid Empire which Russian will inhabit before it invades Israel – Daniel 11. Read more here.


Other Recent Updates:

The Russian Bear sinks claws into the Middle East

Big soft and fluffy.

An astonishing series of events have occurred in the last few weeks which are seeing the demise of the US power and subsequent rise of the Russian power in the Middle East.

Last time we posted on this topic, the US had withdrawn their only remaining aircraft carrier out of the Persian gulf. It had also been revealed that Obama’s rebel program had been an embarrassing failure with only 4 rebels remaining for what was supposed to be $500 million dollar strong program to arm US backed rebels.

Since then, the US administration has only continued to fumble in the face of an assertive Russian presence.

1) Iraq is mulling a ‘goodbye to US’ and ‘hello to Russia’

“The parliament fractions are calling on the Iraqi government to request Russian airstrikes and use it to attack the ISIL military bases and oil centers,’ Rubaie, who is now a senior legislator at the Iraqi parliament, told FNA on Tuesday… ‘The US air force doesn’t cooperate with Iraq’s federal government and security and armed forces and refrains from providing any intelligence on ISIL’s concentration and field camps,’ he added.”

2) Russian plans an unprecedented escalation of the war

So far Russia has been bombing in Syria more than 5 times the intensity of the US. Soon Russia’s contribution will be stepped up to an incredibly intense 300 sorties per day, while the US has been bombing on average two times per day. In the words of the Australian… a truly “remarkable escalation”.

3) Canada to withdraw all involvement from US led coalition against ISIS.

With the election of a new Prime Minister, Canadian foreign policy will change to reflect a budget which will support higher domestic infrastructure spending and a complete withdrawal from the US coalition against ISIS.

 4) The US war against ISIS has availed ‘nothing in 14 months’

“The Islamic State has exactly the same fighting capabilities now as they did 14 months ago. If the size of an adversarial force you intend to “ultimately destroy” remains static, despite 7,323 airstrikes, then it could be as much an indication of their success as it is yours.”

5) Russian officials admit the plan is ‘broader’ than Syria

Russian officials are beginning to admit that Russia’s intention in the Middle East is far broader than Syria.

The Kremlin’s real goal is to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad retake as much as possible of the territory his forces have lost to opponents, including U.S.-backed rebels, Russian officials told Bloomberg News. Moscow’s deployment of several dozen planes, as well as ships in the Black and Caspian Seas, could last a year or more, one official said.

6) 60 minutes interviewer Steve Kroft unnerves Obama over the failure of the Syrian war.


Recent Articles:

Financial Crisis Deferred?

A few weeks back, we posted an article summarizing the very real fears of the World Bank and IMF about the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate rise.

Since then we have been tracking updates as it happened on this page

It seems that two of these potential flash-points have been deferred till December.

1. Interest rate hike – deferred till December

Why is the world so worried about an interest rate hike?

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, many central banks have pumped money into the economy to create economic stimulus. That economic stimulus has failed unlike past occasions, but in the process it has also created a great deal of “cheap debt” – lots of high risk loans that are dependent on a low interest rate.

The IMF is concerned that once the rate goes up, that defaults will begin to occur around the world, and particularly in emerging markets.

But the problems don’t stop there. The Telegraph explains more:

2. US Government Shutdown – deferred till November

Congress may have averted a government shutdown until December 11, but lawmakers will be under the gun to raise or suspend the debt ceiling long before then.

Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said Thursday he now estimates that “on or about” November 5, Treasury is likely to exhaust special accounting measures that are keeping the country’s debt below its legal limit.

At that point, the Treasury Department would only be able to pay the country’s bills with the cash it has on hand — which Lew expects to be roughly $30 billion.

And that would not be enough to cover the bills on some days, which can amount to $60 billion.

“We anticipate that our remaining cash would be depleted quickly,” Lew wrote in a letter to House Speaker John Boehner.

Lew stressed if that happens, it would be the first time in the country’s history that the United States could not meet all of its obligations.

“There is no way to predict the catastrophic damage that default would have on our economy and global financial markets,” he added.

 

Stratfor releases satellite images of Russian military in Syria

Russian expansion in Syria is taking place quickly.

Satellite images taken by Stratfor and published by Reuters show a build up of tanks, helicopters and other heavy weapons. It is estimated now that there is already 500 troops on the revamped air base.

Sources including Debkafile show that Russian troops are also actively fighting in Syria.

Turkey is becoming a logistical pain for Putin:

The increasing Russian military presence in Syria is not considered to be an invasion but once Russian casualties begin to mount its hard not to imagine Putin getting sucked into the vortex of the Middle East.

What is particularly obvious is that Russia is setting up infrastructure for quick access into the middle east through the development of a Syrian airbase.

However while the airbase is expanding its troop numbers via cargo flights, Russia is not allowed to fly through Turkey or Greece and therefore must take a very uneconomical route through Iran & Iraq.

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Interesting to note that Turkey is a logistical thorn in Putins side at the moment as Russia continues to expand in Syria. Pro US Turkey and Greece won’t allow Russia to use their airspace – wonder how long this will last for. Source: Business Insider.

Furthermore all Russian naval cargo is coming through the Bosphorus which is a channel controlled by Turkey. It was recently reported that Turkey threatened to blockade the Bosporus to Russian ships. Imagine if they tried to do that anytime soon!


New Satellite Images of Russias Forward Air Base in Syria

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Latakia airfield in Syria has been built up to accommodate Russian Forces. Satellite images show a build up over the past two weeks. Source: Reuters / Stratfor

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Russia fortifies the Syrian airfield. Source: Reuters / Stratfor

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A battalion-sized Russian contingent now appears to be located at the base, along with advanced T-90 Tanks, artillery and attack helicopter support. Source: Reuters / Stratfor

Recent News:

  • We are tracking Russian expansion in Syria as it happens here
  • Putin offered to guard Israeli oil & gas assets here
  • Egypt discovers what is likely to be the biggest gas field in the world here

The Russian military buildup continues in Syria

Status Report:

  • 15 Russian Antonov-124 flights have unloaded cargo
  • 7 Advanced Russian tanks
  • 15 fresh artillery pieces
  • 35 armored personnel carriers
  • Housing for up to 1500 troops
  • Advanced anti-aircraft missile system

To see the latest on this click here.

“Russia is not concerned for ISIS or Syria”

Business Insider Reports:

“Moscow will reportedly provide Russian troops in Syria with an advanced anti-aircraft missile system as part of its military support for Syrian president Bashar Assad.

“This system is the advanced version used by Russia and it’s meant to be operated by Russians in Syria,” a Western diplomat who is regularly briefed on U.S., Israeli and other intelligence assessments told Reuters.

And as The Daily Beast’s Michael Weiss points out any anti-aircraft missiles deployed by Russian troops in Syria won’t be directed at ISIS, since ISIS has no air force.

In fact, none of the rebels do — only government forces have access to aircraft.

Russia has substantially increased its military presence in Syria over the past two weeks under the guise of helping the embattled al-Assad fight ISIS and other extremists.

US Airforce cites ‘alarming strides’ in Russian air-power.

Reuters reports:

A U.S. Air Force general on Monday cited what he called “alarming” moves by the Russian military to beef up its air forces in the years since the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and to establish firm defenses around areas like Crimea.

General Frank Gorenc, commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe, told reporters he was concerned about Russia’s moves to increase the quantity and quality of its aircraft and field unmanned aircraft.

“The advantage that we had from the air, I can honestly say, is shrinking,” Gorenc said at the annual Air Force Association conference.

Russia launches massive military drills at home involving 90,000 troops.

Yahoo Reports:

Russia on Monday launched its largest military exercises of the year, Centre-2015, involving some 95,000 soldiers including ground troops, navy and airforce units.

The long-announced war games are “the most large-scale drill of 2015,” the defence ministry said.

Russia has recently intensified snap checks of its military might, testing its capabilities from the Arctic to the Far East as relations with the West have plunged to a post-Cold War low over the Ukraine crisis.


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